iSuppli: International component market price tracking

Usually, when we see that the demand for electronic components is slowing down, the concern for the global economy, on the contrary, will affect the consumer confidence this year. At the same time, the slowing real estate market, rising oil prices and the unstable world security market have seriously affected consumer confidence. The more conservative consumer outlook will further affect product demand. Of course, some components are more affected than others. NAND flash memory market closely related to consumer products will continue to maintain sufficient inventory, and the price will also fall sharply. On the other hand, components in short supply may also have some room for development. In most cases, the price will be relatively stable.
As the demand will continue to remain depressed in the next two quarters, it is likely to produce an unexpected high consumption situation in the third quarter. As a result, some components will soon appear in the short supply list. iSuppli will continue to pay close attention to the severe situation in the next two quarters. ISuppli suggests to accumulate components over a long period of time to cope with the changes that will inevitably occur in the third quarter.
The following is iSuppli's analysis of various components in February.
storage
NOR flash memory
In the third quarter, in the face of all-round price challenges, the NOR flash memory market did not make any significant progress this month. Capacity is still tight, but it seems to meet demand. Affected by the fourth quarter of 2006, the outlook for the first quarter of this year does not look optimistic.
NAND memory
Except for the decrease in price, there is basically no change in market factors. SanDisk announced a 10% layoff, which means there is fierce competition in the industry. The shortage of demand and excess inventory in the off-season led to the decline of market prices. ISuppli predicts that the NAND market will continue to face huge challenges in the first half of 2007.
SRAM
In this quarter, the SRAM market was strong, mainly due to the impact of high-performance SRAM in the network and communication markets, and the price of some density ASP also rose slightly. As the factory continuously adjusts the product structure to adapt to the market, the problem of rationing and the problem of long supply period are being alleviated.
EEPROM
The market demand for EEPROM also rose slightly due to the price rise of some special density varieties. The supply period of parallel devices from most suppliers is still as long as 14-24 weeks, while the supply period of serial devices is relatively normal, 8-10 weeks.
DRAM
ISuppli's market trend index remains negative, and DRAM prices fell significantly in February. The price has dropped by 20% in one month, and is expected to continue to decline next month because there is still room for decline. The cold demand for Vista system, the increased supply output and the inventory of channels/modules have all caused the daily price drop in the spot market, thus affecting the OEM price. At present, PC OEMs around the world are negotiating prices strategically with DRAM suppliers, which will bring huge financial challenges in the first half of 2007.
Passive components
Ceramic capacitor
In the past few months, the supply of ceramic capacitors has improved significantly. As predicted by iSuppli last month, the production lines of high CV products of several major companies have started to be launched, including Murata, TDK, Solar Induction, and Kyocera. ISuppli believes that in the next few months, the price of high CV products will start to fall in the lower end, but some cutting-edge products, such as 22 μ F，47 μ F and 100 μ F capacitance value can only pass Q107 and enter Q207. In the next two quarters, within the range of 1% to 3%, the overall dimension and volume value of commodities will increase and the price will fall back. NPO products are still a marginal problem for many manufacturers. If prices continue to fall, major Japanese manufacturers will reduce their attention to such products. Some large Chinese manufacturers want to produce these products, but they will also experience such marginal problems, but the time is uncertain.
Tantalum capacitor
The price of tantalum capacitors has remained stable. In the first half of 2007, there will be no supply problems in the first half of 2006. Demand slows down. iSuppli plans to reduce the price of almost all products in the next two quarters. Kemet, AVX and Vishay have all the additional production capacity to meet the demand, especially for the higher edge low ESR products. Because this is their target product, we predict that there will be fierce market competition to win market share.
Electrolytic capacitor
The delivery date of electrolytic capacitors has become stable and the prices are relatively stable, but we predict that there will be faster changes. The need for higher voltage capacitors for planar applications and TV power supplies continues to be strong. The demand for universal capacitors has slowed down, but the price remains relatively stable. We expect demand to rise significantly in the third quarter. Major Japanese manufacturers continue to focus on expanding to higher voltage products. Some universal 85 degree capacitors continue to suffer from price erosion, which has caused some problems for manufacturers. In this case, we believe that a few major Japanese producers will no longer supply such products.
resistance
The resistance market has not changed significantly. The seasonal demand has slowed down, and the inventory has reached the normal form. The actual capacitance is mainly used for smaller 0402 and 0603 components. ISuppli will cut the price moderately. The production capacity of 0805 and 1206 modules, especially higher current chip resistors, is somewhat strained. At present, iSuppli plans to increase the supply of such products in the short term, but in the long run, this field will not be the focus of manufacturers.
Connector
After the Spring Festival holiday in China, the factory resumed normal production and demand reached a normal level. The connectors used for mobile devices and PC products are in good condition, but compared with the same quarter last year, the situation of consumer products is not satisfactory. In the second quarter of 2007, the planned demand remained stable and did not begin to rise until the third quarter.
Magnetic element
The demand for standard fixed and chip inductors has decreased, but the demand for small coil inductors for portable power supplies is still strong. They can support applications such as mobile devices and digital cameras. The supply period remained stable, and the increase of copper price had not affected the market price. This will change as seasonal demand increases in the third quarter. ISuppli plans to reduce the price and delivery period moderately in the first half of 2007.
frequency control
crystal
After the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for crystals dropped slightly, especially in the packaging application of mobile portable products. Prices remain stable and will experience an appropriate fall. ISuppli is expected to rebound in demand at the end of the second quarter. The demand for 3.2 * 1.5mm products used in high-end portable devices continues to remain strong. For Bluetooth and LAN modules, the transition from 2.5 * 2.0 package to 2.0 * 1.6 package is going smoothly. We predict that there will be a small price drop in this field. As the production capacity of this product is improved, iSuppli predicts that there will be no shortage.
Temperature compensated crystal oscillator
After the festival, market demand slows down. iSuppli predicts that this situation will continue with the decline of mobile phone market demand. Even if we turn to the busy third quarter, the price and delivery time will continue to decline. The demand is mainly focused on the 2.5 * 2.0mm package for the GPS market.
Voltage controlled crystal oscillator
Like TCXO, VCXO has also experienced a decline in demand due to changes in some designs. The demand for Bluetooth and DVD has decreased, but the demand for some network applications is still strong. ISuppli expects that delivery dates and prices will continue to fall for most of 2007.
wave filter
As the use of small 2.0 * 1.6mm packaged multi band mobile phones is becoming more and more popular, the demand for this product is also growing. ISuppli predicts that the demand for this package will remain strong throughout 2007. The overall demand for SAW will be weak, because almost all the rear engines have turned to direct conversion. For most packages, prices and lead times will continue to decline.